Weak Jobs Number Gives Bulls Sign Of Hope For No Rate Hike
At 8:30 this morning the unemployment number was released. 90 economists were expecting over 200,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate remained at 5.1% but only 142,000 jobs were created, much less than expected. There was immediately a massive selloff in S&P futures after the number was released. When the market opened at 9:30 the S&P futures were trading at 1882.75, the print low of the day. The DOW was down over 258 points. At 10:45 I started to see a reversal in the market and it was confirmed by around 11:15 that the lows were in for the day. I then started looking for opportunities to go long. Today was a great day for traders with the volatility and reversal. By the end of the day the S&P futures traded as high as 1943 and the DOW closed up 200 on the day. Today’s low was 16,016, they will do everything they can to keep the market above 16,000. The volatility is here to stay until the end of the year.
The market rallied because everyone was convinced that the job market is struggling. When unemployment was above 8% the Federal Reserve said they would start raising interest rates if unemployment got down to 6.5%. Unemployment is now at 5.1% and the Federal Reserve is saying that they are now data dependent. Today’s data showed that the job market is not as robust as these 90 economists had thought. The market immediately went haywire where buyers came in thinking that there are no rate hikes coming, then there was a short covering rally and the market closed up 200 points.
The market is searching for a bottom. The market is extremely oversold. I am waiting to see what happens next week. I hope in the next 1-3 weeks we get a pullback to make a higher low in the 15500-15900 range. We got down to 15949 about a week ago, I do not know if that is it but I am still looking for the pullback into my range in the next 1-3 weeks.
I stated that if oil got down below the 44.14 level on a closing basis it would be in serious trouble. Today oil traded down to 43.97 and then sharply reversed by 11:30 and stayed that way for the rest of the afternoon with highs near the 45.60 level.
About a week ago when gold shot up to the 1155 level I said I was looking for a pullback. Yesterday I said that gold is significantly oversold and that I still like the pattern even though it went deeper than I thought. Today gold shot up around the 1140 level, and I tweeted that I would be looking to get out of any long positions in gold anywhere above 1135. I do not like gold, it has been negative the last 5 quarters. Gold rallied because with the weak jobs number the gold bugs think the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in 2015. I also do not believe they will raise rates in 2015. There is a small chance they will raise rates in December but I do not believe it will happen.