Waiting on Statement from Today’s Fed Meeting
Today was very quiet. The NASDAQ was down about 2, the DOW was down about 25, and the S&P was down about 5. The market is very overbought here on the daily charts.
Today at 11:30 the Federal Reserve had an emergency meeting to discuss the discount rate. If they raise the discount rate it means that they will most likely raise the federal funds rate in the December meeting. As of 4:00 today we still have not heard any news regarding the meeting. For four and a half hours the market was flat, everyone was waiting to hear what the statement would be. One of my five key words to trading is discipline, and I had to remain disciplined and not trade while I waited on an announcement regarding the meeting. I was very cautious today and stayed on the sidelines.
I do not see what the Federal Reserve is seeing. The US GDP is only about 2-2.5%. There is an economic slowdown worldwide. Today there was more talks of Europe enacting further quantitative easing, and a month ago China cut interest rates. I do not understand the urge to raise interest rates in December.
Oil traded above 42 today before backing off. Oil is negative on the daily and weekly charts. I am looking for a pushup in oil, possibly into the high 44-46 range where I would potentially look to go short. I am waiting to see if oil gets an overbought condition on the daily chart to coincide with the overbought condition on the weekly chart. Oil seems to be finding a short term bottom in the 39.90-40.20 range. I am waiting to see what happens with oil.
Gold was down about $8 today. Gold traded up to 1084-1085 on Friday before trading down to 1066 again. Gold is dead money here. The big number for gold is 1040. I do not know if gold will break this number or even come close to it. I am waiting for a bounce in gold. If we get this bounce I will be looking for a pattern to set up where I would potentially look to go short.