Waiting for Pattern to Setup on Daily Charts
At one point today the DOW Jones Industrial Average was down over 125 points. After the Russian Jet was shot down by Turkey there was fear that Russia may retaliate. Russia did not retaliate and the market started to catch a bid. The market erased the losses for the day and closed up 19 points. I stated I had a strong buy signal on the market after SPY (ETF which mirrors S&P 500) closed above 209.01 on the daily chart. I was looking for the DOW to pull back into the 17450-17650. The DOW traded down to 17683 today. I do not think we are out of the woods yet as I expect 1-3 more days of a pullback. I am waiting for this pattern to set up on the daily charts. Once that pattern is complete I would look to buy QQQ (ETF which mirrors NASDAQ) and SPY. Today the Russell 2000 outperformed the NASDAQ, the DOW and the S&P. The Russell, the small cap sector, has been lagging behind the other indices and is trying to catch up. I will be watching the Russell on this next pullback because I believe it could start catching up with the rest of the market.
Gold was up about 8 dollars today. Gold has traded up about 12 dollars from the low of 1062. There are no clear patterns here in gold. I am looking for a pushup to some sort of an overbought condition on the daily chart where I would look to go short. When that pattern completes I will alert everyone but I currently do not see anything. Gold stocks performed strongly today after being beaten down. KGC (Kinross Gold) was up 19 cents and AUY (Yamana Gold) was up 23 cents today from a deeply oversold condition. There is nothing I would be looking to buy here. I more so would be looking to go short or sell positions that had been bought earlier on the significant push down.
Oil traded above 43 dollars a barrel today before trading lower into the end of the day. I stated that oil has a floor here in the 39.90-40 range. I would be looking to sell oil off of an overbought condition on the daily chart in the 44.50-46.50 range. There is a lot of overhead resistance on the daily chart. I think oil is dead money here.