Waiting For FOMC Meeting
On Friday the Dow Jones Industrial Average had a 300 point decline and I stated that there were three factors leading to the weakness in the overall market. These factors were the fear that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this Wednesday, heavy selling in the Shanghai Composite Index, and falling crude oil prices.
This morning the Dow Jones Industrial Average sold off, trading down about 138 points. Crude oil was also down, trading below the 35 level in the 34.60-34.70 range. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and crude oil were extremely oversold. There was no way that I was going to be short crude oil below 35 dollars a barrel. There was a significant reversal in the overall market. Crude oil caught a bid and traded up about 2 dollars off the low settling at the 36.27-36.30 level. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 103 points. The S&P futures traded down to the 1984-1985 level and then shot up to 2015 toward the end of the day up before backing off slightly after the close. If there was the fear of an interest rate hike I would have expected the overall market to continue pushing lower. It was troubling that the Russell 2000 was down on the day, and at no point lifted its head above water. In addition Gold was down 16-17 dollars. Gold is probably anticipating an interest rate hike. As interest rates increase gold prices decrease, as would all commodities.
I expect the overall market to be very quiet leading up to the Federal Reserve’s announcement Wednesday. I am in the minority that does not believe the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in the December meeting. I have been saying since January that the Federal Reserve would not raise interest rates in 2015. I do not see the Federal Reserve increasing rates in the last month of the year, with only 12 business days left in the year and only 10 after the announcement Wednesday. If they do not raise rates the market should explode upward. Even if they do raise interest rates by a 0.25%, I believe the language thereafter will be so dovish that the market will still explode to the upside. I am bullish here and I do not believe the Federal Reserve will raise rates this Wednesday.
I stated I was looking for gold to get into the 1090-1100 range where I would look to get short. Gold got up to the 1088 level and has dropped 29-30 dollars from there, settling around the 1059 level. The 1040 level is a very big number for gold, going back 7-8 years.
I am waiting to see if crude oil can get a pop. I do not know if that is going to happen. Crude oil is in a range between 34.50 and 40.50.