Waiting for Bullish Pattern to Setup on Daily Charts

Today the market was down but it did not feel like a down day. The advance decline was 3:1 negative, the DOW was only down 50 points, and the NASDAQ was down very slightly. The S&P futures are trading around the 2058 level. The S&P futures are still 45 points away from the 10-bar moving average on the daily chart. Whenever the S&P futures are more than 30 points away from the 10-bar moving average on the daily chart it is a significant concern. I am looking for the market to pullback and to get some sort of an oversold condition on the daily charts in the next couple days. I am looking for a pullback in the market of 100-200 points and for the S&P futures to pull in 15-20 points from where they currently are. Going forward I think the market will make a series of higher lows through the end of the year.

The NASDAQ is up over 6% on the year and I believe the NASDAQ is going to lead the market going forward. On a pullback I would be looking to buy QQQ (ETF which mirrors the NASDAQ-100). I would also look to buy names such as Disney (DIS), Home Depot (HD), and Starbucks (SBUX) as well as ETFs such as SPY (ETF which mirrors the S&P 500) and DIA (ETF which mirrors the DOW).

I stated that once oil broke the 45.48 level on the daily charts that oil was in trouble. I stated that I was on the sidelines waiting to see what would happen with oil. If oil pushes up into the 48-49.50 range I would be looking to short oil off the daily charts. If oil pulls back into the 40-43 range I would look to buy oil off the weekly charts with a 38 stop. Today oil traded down to 42.58 before rallying about 70 cents. If you were able to buy oil below the 43 level I would look to sell it.

When gold traded up to 1191 I stated that gold was severely overbought and I was looking for a pullback. Gold pulled in from 1191 down to 1158. Gold seems like it is holding above the 1158-1160 range. Today gold closed around the 1166 level and the stochastics on the daily chart are starting to turn up. I am looking for an extreme oversold condition which I believe would occur if gold trades down to the 1145-1155 range where I would look to buy gold for a short term trade. I am going to give gold a couple more days to see if that can happen. Long term I am bearish on gold.

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