Take Caution!

On April 23rd I got a buy signal on the daily charts in the s@p futures. That buy signal pushed the s@ps to new all-time highs to 2119.75. Once that high was reached I was looking for a pullback to the 1980-1990 level on the s@ps . The s@ps pushed all the way down to 1970 before snapping back above 2100 .I think that the markets are in the top of the 8th inning. I see the s@ps maybe having a move to 2125-2140 before the move is exhausted. The move would correlate to about 18200-18500 on the Dow jones industrial average. Either way If I was a long term investor I would look to sell into any rally and be in all cash. I still think that the gaps below will get filled and those gaps go all the way down to 16100 on the Dow. I do not think that this is a time for investors to be complacent. Oil in April had its best performance in over 6 years. The cutting of production, the closing of oil rig platforms have all contributed in the advance. However there is still an abundance of oil. There is significant overhead resistance in the weekly charts in oil. I think oil is no way out of the woods. There have been so very big name firms calling for oil to be 25 by year end. I though the low was between 40-45 per barrel and the low was near 42. Even with the huge move up in oil a lot of oil stocks didn’t go far. So if there are those who bought oil stocks when the price was or at near the 45-48 range I would look to get out. Gold I am still bullish on. I do not see the emerald reserve raising rates in 2015 so I think gold can have a move up to the 1280-1320 by year end.

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