Severe Overbought Condition
Today was a quiet day on wall street, however at the end of the day the DOW was up 47 points. The market is extremely overbought. The market has been up now for 7 consecutive days with over 1100 points of gains. Anytime the S&P Futures are more than 30 points away from the 10-bar moving average on the daily chart it is a significant condition. Currently the S&P Futures are 50 points above the 10 bar moving average on the daily chart, an extreme overbought condition. I am looking for a pullback in the next 1-5 days before we push up and start erasing a lot of the losses for 2015. I am 100% certain that the low of 15379 will hold for the year. I am looking for a market pullback to make a higher low in the 15800-16500 range. When we get this pullback it will be a buying opportunity for great names such as SBUX (Starbucks), HD (Home Depot), DIS (Disney) and ETFs (exchange traded funds) such as DIA and SPY. With only 56 business days until the end of the year I believe that after we get this pullback the DOW and the S&Ps will try to erase a lot of the loss if not inch out a single digit gain for the year.
Today oil was down about 5% which is exactly what I was looking for. This pullback could set up a long pattern on the daily charts. I am looking for a pullback in the 44.5-46.5 range. Today oil got down to 47.04. I expect another 1-3 days of this pullback before oil pushes back up above 50.
I stated that if gold traded between 1155 and 1175 I would be looking to sell any gold stocks which were bought at lower levels. Today gold got up to the 1163 range. Stocks like KGC (Kinross Gold) and AUY (Yamana Gold) had monstrous moves off their lows and were extremely overbought on the daily charts. Gold today was up more than 7 dollars and stocks like KGC, AUY, and NUGT were down over 8% today. This is why I stated that if gold got between the 1155 and 1175 range I would be looking to sell any gold stocks. I am expecting gold which is extremely overbought to get a pullback on the daily charts. Once that pullback occurs and gets to a somewhat oversold condition I would look to buy AUY, KGC, NUGT, and ABX for a short term trade only.