Searching for a Bottom
We saw very heavy selling this morning in the S&P futures. When the market opened at 9:30 we saw very heavy selling in the equity market and at one point the DOW was down over 270 points. By 1-1:30 we saw a rally coming way off the lows and the DOW closed at 16300, down 170 points. I am 75%-80% confident that the low of 15379 is it for the year. I am looking for a pullback to make a higher low in the 15500-15900 range where two gaps in the market should get filled. Then I expect to trade higher into the end of the year and erase a lot of the losses for the year.
The November crude oil contract traded down to 43.99 a few days ago. I have given up on the pullback I was looking for into the 39-43 range. It is now trading after hours in the 46 range. I would cancel my orders in oil, SN (Sanchez Energy), and VNR (Vanguard Natural Resources). I am now just watching oil and staying on the sidelines until I see a great pattern.
Last night I said I thought gold was significantly overbought on the daily charts. Gold was down over $10 today trading around 1123. This print low for the year is 1071. I do think we will get a higher low in gold. If gold takes out the 1144 level on a daily basis I would get a buy signal on my daily charts and I would be looking for a pullback for an opportunity to go long.