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Pullback Coming

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Today was a quiet day in the markets with low volatility. The DOW closed down 23 and the NASDAQ closed down 21. Looking at my daily charts, since October 14/15th the S&P 500 has rallied 100 points going from 1985 to 2085.25. Currently on my daily work the S&P futures are 56 points away from my 10-bar moving average. Whenever the S&P futures are more than 30 points from the 10-bar moving average on the daily charts it is an extreme condition. I am very cautious here. I am looking for a pullback in the near future to setup a pattern on the daily charts.

Going forward I expect a series of higher lows into the end of the year. November and December are very bullish months for the market. I am looking for 3-4 great pullbacks in the next couple months. I do believe the DOW, the S&P 500, and the overall market will be up at the end of the year. Year to date the NASDAQ is up 7.14% the S&P 500 is up 1.48%, the DOW is down 0.38%, and the Russell 2000 is down 3.24%.

Oil traded down to 42.58 yesterday. The oil inventory number released yesterday was on the light side and oil shot up. At one point today oil was trading above the 46.50 range before selling off into the afternoon. I am bullish on oil on the weekly charts. If oil pulls into the 40-43 range I would look to buy oil with a 38 stop.

I am bearish gold long term. I stated that I was looking for a pullback in gold into the 1145-1155 range to where it would be extremely oversold on the daily charts. Gold traded down to 1158. I then stated I was looking for a move to the 1175-1180 range. Gold shot up to 1183 and then dropped about 40 points. Today gold traded down to 1142 and then settled around the 1146 level. If gold takes out the 1143.70 level on the daily charts my work will go negative. If this happened gold would be negative on both my daily and weekly charts. I would then look to short gold on a bounce.

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