Pattern Almost Complete on Daily
Today was Veteran’s day, the banks were closed and it was a slow day in the market. At the close the DOW was down 56 points, the S&P 500 was down 7 points, the NASDAQ was down 16 points and the Russell 2000 was down 10 points. Yesterday I stated I was looking for 1-2 more days of a pullback before the market would turn back up. The pattern has not completed yet but it is almost there. I am expecting possibly one more down day before the market pushes back up above the 17900 level.
At year’s end I am looking for the NASDAQ to be up low double digits, the S&P 500 to be up 5-9%, and the DOW and the Russell 2000 to be up low to mid-single digits. I do believe the NASDAQ will outperform the market and I would look to buy QQQ (ETF which mirrors the NASDQ) and SPY (ETF which mirrors the S&P 500) in the next day or two. I believe this pattern on the daily charts should push upward and provide a nice trade.
Today oil was down over $1.20, trading below the 43 level. The key number for oil is 41.74 on the weekly chart. If oil closes below the 41.74 level on Friday I will have a sell signal on oil on the weekly chart and oil will be in serious trouble. Currently I am bullish oil in the 42.50-44.50 range. Oil keeps coming into this range and then trading upward. Oil is getting somewhat oversold on the daily chart. I think oil may be ok but if oil closes on Friday below the 41.74 level I believe oil could trade down to the upper or mid 30s.
Gold was down $4 today. Gold is currently trading about $12 above the low for the year of 1072.30. Gold is significantly oversold. When gold traded up to the 1180-1185 range I stated that if I was a long term investor I would look to get out of gold and gold stocks. I was bearish on gold off of the weekly charts and bearish on gold long term. Once the daily chart went negative, both the daily and weekly charts were negative. We may get an oversold bounce in gold or gold could even test the 1072 level. I am waiting to see what happens with gold.