Oil and Oil Stocks Lead Decline in Equities
Today the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down over 160 points. The NASDAQ-100 bucked the trend, a lot of it having to do with AMZN (Amazon), FB (Facebook), and AAPL (Apple) having a strong day. Overall the market showed significant selling based on oil breaking the 37 dollar a barrel level. The weakness in oil put a lot of strain on the oil stocks such as CVX (Chevron), XON (Exxon), HES (Hess), and the oil drilling stocks such as SLB (Schlumberger). We are seeing liquidation in the oil stocks due to the drop in oil. I have stated that if I was a long term investor I would look to sell in the 17800-18400 range between now and the end of the year and be 100% in cash. The Dow Jones Industrial Average got up to the 17880 level. I thought that was a good place where I would look to liquidate a quarter of one’s positions. I do think we will get one more push above the 18000 level between now and the end of the year. I see a lot of weakness around the globe. I would rather be in cash, be safe, and wait for an opportunity to reenter the market in 2016.
Last week I called for the market to bottom between Thursday and early Friday morning. We got that bottom and on Friday the Dow Jones Industrial Average shot up around 360 points. I stated that I would look to sell into that rally. It was too fast too soon. I expected that rally to last 4-5 days and we got it all in one day. I am now waiting to see if the market can hold key levels on my work.
I stated that I would look to short gold if it got up into the 1090-1100 range. Gold got up to the 1088 level but never entered my range. Gold dropped about $14 from that level and then was very flat today.
Today crude oil traded below the $37 a barrel level. Oil traded down to the 36.54 level before pushing back up to 38 and settling in the low-mid 37 range. About three weeks ago when I got the sell signal for oil on the daily chart which mirrored the sell signal on the weekly chart, I saw nothing but disaster ahead for oil stocks. I was looking for a bounce in oil into the 44.50-46.50 range and oil got up to the 43.50-43.80 range. We now have a very extreme oversold condition setting up in oil. It does not mean that oil cannot push up off of an oversold bounce and then make a series of lower highs as it continues downward. Right now I am very bearish on oil. It is good news for the consumer as gasoline and heating oil prices should follow the decline in crude oil.