I have been saying since January that I did not believe the Federal Reserve would raise rates in 2015. About 75% of economists expected them to raise rates today. Today the Federal Open Market Committee stated that they would not raise interest rates. I do not believe they will raise rates for the rest of the year. The Federal Reserve is now stating that they are economic data dependent. When unemployment was over 8% the Federal Reserve stated that if unemployment dipped to 6.5% that would be a key level for them to raise interest rates. As of the last jobs number unemployment was at 5.1%. The Federal Reserve is saying that they are now looking at the slowdown in China. I have no clue what they are doing but I do not see them raising interest rates in 2015.
Today the market was down 77, up 175, and then closed down about 65. I do believe the market will pullback and make a higher low before pushing higher. I am looking at stocks such as DIS (Disney), HD (Home Depot), SBUX (Starbucks) to capture for the rest of the year.
Goldman Sachs stated that they could see oil trading down to around 20 per barrel sometime over the next 15 years. OPEC came out and said they see oil at 80 by 2020. I am siding towards Goldman Sachs, however OPEC can do whatever they want. They could shut the valves off and then oil would go higher. There is a glut of oil and I am bearish long term on oil. I believe sometime between now and November I am looking for a higher low in oil in the 39-43 range where I would be looking to buy oil and oil stocks. Twice oil got down into the mid 43 range, however it did not enter my range and then shot up to 47-48.
As rates were not increased today gold shot up substantially to the 1130-1132 range. Gold told the story yesterday up about 17. I said the way the markets were rallying the last couple days the Federal Reserve was not going to raise interest rates. I do still have sell signals on the daily and weekly charts for gold. If gold takes out 1147 on a closing basis, I believe sometime over the next 5-8 weeks gold would make a higher low and any pullback would be a great opportunity for long entries.