Midday Rally Launches Stocks

Today was another volatile day in September. The DOW from the opening was down about 50 points trading around 16244. At 12:15 I got a buy signal on the market and it closed up 102 points around 16400. When I got the buy signal I knew the low of 1927.50 on the S&P futures was the low for the day.

I believe the market thinks the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates next Thursday. The International Monetary Fund asked the Federal Reserve to not raise interest rates. As I have been saying since January I also do not believe they will raise interest rates. If interest rates are unchanged the market should have a significant rally. I am 75%-80% certain that the lows are in for the year. I would like to see a couple pullbacks to fill the gaps in the 15500-15800 range, however we may have seen the low at 15979. I expect a quiet week next week until we hear the Federal Reserve’s plan.

Oil was very weak today trading down about 1.5 to a low of 44.16. I am looking to buy oil and oil stocks on a pullback into the 39-43 range. Goldman Sachs talked about oil getting down to close to $20 a barrel within the year. I don’t think this will happen in the next couple weeks. I am bearish on oil long term and bullish short term. I believe oil will have a pullback and pushup higher to the mid to upper 40s. A lot of the oil stocks are not acting right and it is something to be worried about. It will take a lot for the oil stocks to push back up to where they once were.

Today gold acted weak getting down to the 1098 level before reversing towards the end of the day. I have said I would be looking to get out of gold at the 1150-1160 range, and it got up to 1147. ABX traded below 6 today, having dropped from the high for the year of 13.70. I see gold going nowhere stuck in a range 1071-1180. I have a sell signal on the daily and weekly charts for gold. If we do get a rally it would be a great shorting opportunity.

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