Markets Going Nowhere Fast
Yesterday the S&P futures traded down to 2068.75. I stated that the S&Ps had to hold above 2072 on a closing basis on the daily charts. With the S&Ps closing at 2080.25 and the extreme oversold condition on the daily charts, the market was poised to hold above the 2072 level. With the extreme oversold condition I stated that the market should get a test back to the 2110 level. Today’s print high was 2108. With the close yesterday, the DOW was down for the year. This is not something people are familiar with. And of course everything possible was done to make the market push back above the plus column for the year. The DOW closed up above 200 points for the year. Overall since January the market has not done much and we are almost six months into the year. If the 2072 level for the S&P futures is taken out on the daily charts, the market would get a huge sell signal and I think that would be the beginning of a decline that should fill a lot of the gaps that are below the market. That should carry us to sometime in the third quarter. Again I am looking for a pullback in the market sometime in the next several weeks, followed by a rally that should start the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter which should carry us into the end of the year. Again if I was a long term investor I would be looking to sell between 18100 and 18500.
There are no clear patterns in gold. Even though we had a little bounce on the day I still believe we tested the low for the year. Crude oil had two strong up days. Again crude is running into a brick wall between the 61 and 65 dollar range. A lot of oil stocks are showing a clear divergence between where oil is and where the stocks should be. Stocks like PVA, SN, VNR, DBO, and HES cannot get going even with the rise in oil over the past two days.
My course Pattern Recognition 101 is almost complete and I will keep you posted if anyone has any questions please call 203-617-4026 .