Market Signaling No Rate Hike
Today the DOW was up 140, gold was up 17, and oil was up over 2.5. Between yesterday and today the DOW is up close to 400 points, now up 1400 points off the lows of 15379. I have stated that I am 75%-80% sure that the lows are in for the year.
Tomorrow at 2:00 the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee will announce whether or not they will leave rates unchanged or raise them by a .25%. The way the markets and gold are acting it does not look like they will raise rates. I have been saying since January that I don’t believe the Federal Reserve will raise rates in 2015. Yesterday we had weaker than expected retail sales. When unemployment was at 8.3-8.4% the Federal Reserve said they would start to raise rates if unemployment ever got down to 6.5%. They did not raise rates when unemployment got down to 6.5% and the unemployment report last Friday came out at 5.1%. The IMF (International Monetary Fund) asked the Federal Reserve not to raise rates. All of these factors support my belief that the Federal Reserve will not raise rates.
I do not expect much to happen until the announcement at 2:00, after which we should see a lot of movement in the currencies commodities and equity prices.
Gold was up 17 dollars today. I have sell signals on the daily and weekly charts for gold. If gold gets up to the 1150-1160 range I may be looking to short gold.