Market Selloff Working Off Overbought Condition

Over the last couple days I have been saying that the market is extremely overbought. We had seven consecutive up days with gains of over 1100 points on the DOW. Whenever the S&P futures are more than 30 points away from the 10 bar moving average it is an extreme condition. The S&P futures were over 50 points away from the 10 bar moving average on the daily chart. This was a sign of trouble. The S&P futures traded as high 2014.75 yesterday and today they traded as low as 1982.50. The S&P futures are now 18-19 points from the 10 bar moving average. There is a beautiful pattern setting up on the daily charts. I am looking for the market to make a higher low. I am 100% certain that the low of 15379 is in for the year. We had weaker than expected retail sales this morning coming in at 0.1%. In a robust economy retail sales should be in the 0.4-0.6% range. Sometime mid-morning Wal-Mart reported that its full-year sales would be flat and that they expect earnings per share to decline by 6-12% next fiscal year. Wal-Mart, a DOW stock, is down over 9% and is leading most of the decline today. I am waiting for an oversold condition in the next 1-3 days before we move back up.

Yesterday I stated I was looking for a pullback in oil in the 44.50-46.50 range. Oil pulled back to 45.94. I would be looking to get out of any oil positions that were bought on the pullback above 46.50. Tomorrow the oil inventory number is being released and I would look to be flat oil going into that news.

Gold traded as high as 1185-1188 today. Gold is significantly overbought. I am waiting for a pullback in gold to go long for a short term trade. I would also look at the gold stocks such as ABX (Barrick Gold), AUY (Yamana Gold), KGC (Kinross Gold), NEM(Newmont Mining), and NUGT for a short term trade.

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