Jump in Equity Prices China Stimulus???
On Friday the jobs number was released and unemployment dipped to 5.1%. The market sold off because of the fear that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates in the month of September. I stated I thought 2015 would be a very volatile year and that I did not believe the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates at all in 2015. I am 75%-80% certain that the lows are in for the year at the 15370 level. I am looking for a pullback to a higher low. There are a couple gaps below the market down to the 15500-15800 range. We got down to 15979 before moving back up. I would be looking for a pullback to buy on an oversold condition. Currently the stochastics on the daily charts are in no man’s land.
Today the DOW was up around 385 points, the market was very strong right out the gate, pulled in, and had a buy signal around 1:55 that prompted the market to go up another 100 points higher in the afternoon. This was caused by the rumors that china would enact more quantitative easing and stimulate the economy. This would be in response to exports not being shipped out fast enough and the fear that the economy in slowing down to the point where the Chinese government needs to step in. The Shanghai was down last night and then closed up strong. Rumor is that the Chinese government is buying stocks to support the market.
Oil was down over a dollar at one point today. I have been saying if oil gets to the 38-42, 39-43 range on a pullback I would be looking to buy oil and oil stocks. I am very bearish in the long term but I think the lows are in for the next 4-8 weeks.
Gold was down 50 cents today, shot up to 1128 and sold off as the day went on. Gold is in no man’s land. The stocks are not participating in any move. ABX (Barrick Gold) is down over 50% for the year.