Interest Rate Comments Counteract IBM Decline

At one point today the DOW was down about 50 points. The loss was erased and the DOW was up at one point before closing down 12 points. The DOW was only down 12 points despite IBM trading down almost $9 due to weaker than expected earnings. The resilience of the DOW was largely due to FOMC Vice Chairman Dudley saying that it is not time to raise interest rates.

Looking at the charts of SPY (ETF which mirrors the S&P500) and DIA (ETF which mirrors the DOW), I see a very overbought market. If I was a long term investor I would not be comfortable holding equities here. I am looking for a pullback in the market to make a higher low. I believe the market could pullback and make a higher low 2-4 times by the end of the year.

Oil must hold above 45.48 on the daily charts. Today oil closed around the 46.14 level. I am on the sidelines waiting to see how oil reacts. If oil closes below the 45.48 level on a daily basis, I believe oil will have problems in the following couple weeks.

Today gold traded as high as 1181 following Dudley saying that it is not time to raise interest rates. Gold closed around the 1176 level. I am waiting for gold to become oversold on the daily charts. I would then look to buy gold for a trade that would last 1-6 business days.

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