Higher Lows for the Rest of the Year
After the market pushed down in the 3rd quarter I stated that I was looking for the market to turn back up in the 4th quarter, erase the losses, and be up on the year. The market rallied 8.5% in October. Prior to today the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 were up for the year. The DOW is now up for the year and the Russell 2000 is down about 1%. I currently have a buy signal on the market and I am looking for the market to pull back and make a series of higher lows for the rest of the year.
I expect the Federal Reserve not to do anything in November or December, pushing the market upward. At year’s end I am looking for the NASDAQ to be up double digits, the S&P 500 to be up 5-10%, and the DOW and the Russell 2000 to be up 3-8%. If this happens I may be looking to liquidate going into 2016. I think there is a good chance that in 2016 the market could retest the 15300-15900 range.
Oil is overbought on the daily chart and I am looking for oil to pull back into the 42.50-44.50 range. Oil was up over $1.70 today trading up to the 48 level. I am waiting for oil to pull in and go from an overbought condition to an oversold condition on the daily chart. I then believe the weekly chart will take hold as it is the larger timeframe and oil could then push up through the 50 level.
I am bearish gold and I stated that if gold got up to the 1180-1190 level I would be looking to sell gold and gold stocks. Currently gold is trading around 1117, trading down to 1113 today. Gold is extremely oversold here. Gold could keep going lower despite this oversold reading. I am now looking for a pushup in gold for an opportunity to go short, possibly in the 1135-1138 range.