Down 2.8% to Start September, Higher Low Expected

The DOW got up to 16600 today and pulled in. At one point today we were down over 500 points before settling down 469 points, slightly above 16000. I believe that there is an 80% chance the lows are in for the year, but we may still get to the mid 15000 or the 15800-15900 level in the next couple weeks. The 15370 level should hold and if we do make a new low I believe it will be short lived. I did not like the pattern on the daily charts. We shot up over 1000 points but the pattern was very weak. The DOW was down 6% in the month of August and down about 10% on the year. I am looking for 2-3 days of selling, maybe a bounce early tomorrow but I expect the gaps from the prior week to be filled and we will make a higher low. After we get over this hurdle I expect the DOW to erase most of the losses we’ve seen into the end of the year.

Crude oil was down 8% today and up 27% over the last three days. This has been a very dramatic move in oil. I think oil should be bought anywhere in the 38-42 range and I believe the low in oil should hold. I expect oil to make a higher low. I like the pattern in oil, I see things starting to turn up but I see some divergences.

Today gold hit 1147 before closing at 1139. It rallied about 20 dollars since I saw the positive divergence with the stochastics on the daily chart being deeply oversold with the stochastics on the weekly charts turning up. If gold gets up to 1150-1160 that would be my target to get out of any gold stocks which you bought lower. Gold stocks such ABX (Barrick Gold), NEM (Newmont Mining) and NUGT were down on the day despite gold being up on the day. I do not believe the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in September or during the rest of the year especially with the volatility we saw yesterday and today.

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