One Should Never be Complacent in the Markets

In my last update I stated that if the DOW got between the 18100-18500 range I would look to be 100% in cash. The technical weakness I saw on the weekly charts gave me that technical reading. I also felt there was significant complacency. I was looking for a pullback down to 16100 level to fill that gap. I stated that gap should be filled sometime in the third quarter to the beginning on the 4th quarter before a rally into the end of the year. We blew through the 16100 level and the DOW got down to the 15300 range, dropping about 3000 points. Following the drop, the DOW has risen about 1000 point due to an extreme oversold condition. There is probably a 40% chance that we have seen the lows for the year and even if we go higher we should have some significant overhead resistance. I am expecting significant volatility in weeks to come and there is still a 15% chance that we can make new lows for the year in early September. On the weekly chart I have a sell signal in the US equity markets and I think we can have some backing and filling in the weeks ahead. Again there was significant complacency when the DOW was above 18000. This combined with the technical weakness on the weekly charts is why I thought the gap down to 16100 would get filled. I do not believe in buying and holding. I believe the software I created gives me the ability to get in and out of the market at the right times for day trades, intermediate term trades, and long term investments. Looking back if one was in cash and sold above the 18100 level one could have reentered the market at significantly lower prices when the DOW fell to the 15500-15600 level.
On my last update I stated that if oil broke below 57.70 on the daily charts we would test to the low 40s. I believe it was the Friday of my last show that oil broke that level and has declined $19 from there. I saw oil having significant trouble between the 61-64 range due to significant overhead resistance on the weekly charts. I started to see oil stocks such as HES, OXY, and CVX selling off while oil was trading higher, another key sign oil was in trouble. From here I expect oil to get some kind of a bounce, but nothing near the April highs. Again oil should have significant overhead resistance on the daily and weekly charts.

In my last update is stated that I thought gold would make a new low. Gold made a new low, getting down to the 1080 level. Gold right now is in a range between 1080-1160 and I think that is where it stays. I don’t believe gold will break the 1040 or the 1000 level. Since January I said I didn’t believe the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates. When you have negative interest rates in a few European countries along with the International Monetary Fund asking the Federal Reserve not to raise interest rates it confirmed my belief that the Federal Reserve would not raise interest rates in 2015.

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