A Push To Close Above 16,000

Today there was a significant amount of volatility. At one point the DOW got down to 15942 before closing at 16049, up 47 points on the day. The S&P futures got down to 1861 and rallied sharply into the last 20 minutes closing at 1874. The market is looking to make a bottom here, a higher low. I am 75-80% certain that the low of 15379 will hold for the year. I am looking for a higher low in the 15500-15900 range. I see another 1-3 weeks of volatility before seasonality comes in and the market can start trading higher, erasing a lot of the loss for 2015 and possibly even inching out a small gain by years end.

Oil has a very key number of 44.10 on the daily charts. Oil has been trading in the mid 40s and closed above 45 today. If oil closes below the 44.10 level I think it will be in some trouble. If the key number is taken out of a daily basis I expect a 3-4 dollars bounce before we could possibly retest the lows for the year.

Today gold was down 2-3 dollars, trading as high as 1131 and then closing around 1127. After gold traded above 1144 on a daily basis it traded up to 1153. I called for a pullback in the 1127-1135 range. I think gold has one more push up, however long term I am bearish on gold and I don’t see it going anywhere between now and the end of the year, especially with talks of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in 2016. I do not see the Federal Reserve raising interest rates between now and the end of the year.

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